Crypto Markets Jitter as Bitcoin Dips, ETFs See Outflows, and Macro Risks Rise

August has delivered a turbulent start as cryptocurrency markets grapple with significant outflows from exchange-traded funds and mounting macroeconomic pressures. The digital assets market capitalization managed a slight uptick Monday morning, reaching $3.37 trillion, though trading volume contracted by 14% to $110 billion over the previous 24 hours.

Following an impressive rally that set new records, Bitcoin experienced a sharp reversal during weekend trading sessions, driven by the most severe spot ETF outflows witnessed in months. The leading cryptocurrency retreated to $114,000 after nearly $1 billion fled ETFs during Thursday and Friday’s trading sessions.

Ethereum faced similar pressures, declining from $3,800 levels down to the $3,500 range throughout the past week.

Contrasting ETF Performance Between Major Cryptocurrencies

Data from SoSovalue reveals that August 1 witnessed $812.25 million exiting Bitcoin ETFs, following July 31’s withdrawal of $114.35 million.

Market Movers Today:
– $BTC ETFs: $812M outflow (2nd biggest ever)
– $ETH ETFs: $152M outflow, ends 20-day inflow streak

US NFP crash:
– May: 144K → 19K (–125K)
– June: 147K → 14K (–133K)
（Lowest two-month job growth since April 2021）

Intern’s note:
Soft jobs data + huge… pic.twitter.com/L27hI0G3jv

— SoSoValue (@SoSoValueCrypto) August 2, 2025

Net flows into BTC ETFs turned negative by $643 million last week, breaking a seven-week streak of positive inflows.

Ethereum ETFs bucked this trend, maintaining $154 million in net inflows and extending their winning streak to 12 consecutive weeks of positive flows.

Bitcoin’s price has dropped approximately 4% over the past seven days, though it maintains a 7% gain across the 30-day period. BTC currently trades around $114,594 at the time of reporting. Ethereum demonstrated stronger performance relative to Bitcoin last month, with ETH prices surging 42% over the past week while maintaining positions near the $3,500 level.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom, issued weekend warnings about potential corrections for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Citing weak employment figures, increasing tariffs, and sluggish global credit creation, Hayes suggested BTC could test $100,000 while ETH might reach $3,000 before any rally resumes. “No major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal GDP,” he posted on X.

Despite near-term concerns, his long-term outlook remains extremely optimistic, projecting BTC could reach $250,000 by year-end and $1 million by 2028. Historical patterns show August has been challenging for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, with both assets closing lower in each of the previous four August periods.

Employment Data Shifts Federal Reserve Expectations

Market sentiment shifted following disappointing US employment data that revealed only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below the anticipated 110,000. Downward revisions for May and June eliminated 258,000 jobs, marking the largest two-month adjustment since the COVID-19 market disruption. This development dramatically altered rate cut expectations.

Polymarket data indicates a 70% probability the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point rate reduction in September, up sharply from 35% one week prior. While odds for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut remain below 7%, they continue climbing. These developments weakened the US dollar, reduced bond yields, and renewed risk appetite across various markets.

Global markets are simultaneously processing President Trump’s recently announced tariffs affecting 69 countries. With Federal Reserve policy back in focus and inflation data remaining elevated, the coming week presents critical market-moving events. Investors will monitor Monday’s July S&P Global Services PMI data, Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims figures, and remarks from five scheduled Fed speakers throughout the week.

Near-Term Market Outlook

The combination of substantial ETF outflows and weakening employment data suggests continued volatility ahead for cryptocurrency markets. Fed policy shifts and upcoming economic indicators will likely drive short-term price action across digital assets.